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MikeRozak · 04-18-2008, 06:50 PM

I just did a graph of the numbers, and it's fairly clear what's happening: Barring statistical anomolies in 1999 and 2007, the new-muds-per-year graph has a quick run-up until 1996-1999, and gradual decline. The number of MUDs is basically a linear ramp over time.

In 2006 I did a similar analysis in MMORPG.com and found the number of new MMORPG/year was still increasing. In 2006 it was around 24 new MMORPGs. I don't know if MMORPG creation has leveled off yet, but I suspect not. I expect with Multiverse, Realmcrafter, the Hero Engine, etc. that a flood of MMORPGs will appear over the next few years, probably equivalent to the DikuMUD spike.

Another thing to think about:

(a) The work involved in a MUD = an huge amount of up-front work + continuing maintinence (admin and server fees). Diku greatly reduced the initial up-front work. Cheaper servers have reduced continuing maintinence. Better (GUI) tools have also reduced up-front work and maintinence.

(b) The amount of people available to do work on MUDs = the overall MUD population x the 1% to 0.1% who are willing to work on content. (Each MUD, in turn, requires 1-20 contributers. Meaning there is someplace between 1 MUD per 100 players and one MUD per 20,000 players.)

(c) Therefore, the number of people playing MUDs is proportional to the number of MUDs TIMES how difficult it is to create/maintain a MUD.

(d) Since 1990, MUDs have gotten easier to create, easier to maintain, and cheaper to maintain... which means more MUDs per player.

(e) The graph of number of MUDs has been fairly linear, which (if MUDs were just as difficult to create/maintain as ever) would imply a linear increase in the number of players. However, since MUDs have gotten easier to create/maintain, another factor needs to be included...

If you assume that it's half as much work to create and maintain a MUD in 2008 (when there are 1341 MUDs) as it was in 2000 (when there were 771 MUDs), then then there are rougly the same number of players now (1341 * 1/2 as hard to create/maintain = 670) as in 2000 (771).

If MUDs are MUCH easier to create/maintain, there are far fewer players.

If MUDs are only slightly easier to create/maintain, there are slightly more players.

As a percentage of the number of people on the internet, there are certainly fewer MUD players now than in 2000. Compared to the number of MMORPG players, there are fewer MUD players per MMORPG player.

2006 info from MMORPG.com:
Year New MMORPGs (MMORPG.com) Subscribers (MMORPGChart)
1996 2 10000
1997 5 30000
1998 2 150000
1999 3 800000
2000 1 1500000
2001 7 2800000
2002 8 4000000
2003 19 5000000
2004 17 6500000
2005 22 9000000
2006 22.66666667 13000000

04-18-2008, 06:50 PM	#3
MikeRozak Member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 48	Re: The "Health," of Muds I just did a graph of the numbers, and it's fairly clear what's happening: Barring statistical anomolies in 1999 and 2007, the new-muds-per-year graph has a quick run-up until 1996-1999, and gradual decline. The number of MUDs is basically a linear ramp over time. In 2006 I did a similar analysis in MMORPG.com and found the number of new MMORPG/year was still increasing. In 2006 it was around 24 new MMORPGs. I don't know if MMORPG creation has leveled off yet, but I suspect not. I expect with Multiverse, Realmcrafter, the Hero Engine, etc. that a flood of MMORPGs will appear over the next few years, probably equivalent to the DikuMUD spike. Another thing to think about: (a) The work involved in a MUD = an huge amount of up-front work + continuing maintinence (admin and server fees). Diku greatly reduced the initial up-front work. Cheaper servers have reduced continuing maintinence. Better (GUI) tools have also reduced up-front work and maintinence. (b) The amount of people available to do work on MUDs = the overall MUD population x the 1% to 0.1% who are willing to work on content. (Each MUD, in turn, requires 1-20 contributers. Meaning there is someplace between 1 MUD per 100 players and one MUD per 20,000 players.) (c) Therefore, the number of people playing MUDs is proportional to the number of MUDs TIMES how difficult it is to create/maintain a MUD. (d) Since 1990, MUDs have gotten easier to create, easier to maintain, and cheaper to maintain... which means more MUDs per player. (e) The graph of number of MUDs has been fairly linear, which (if MUDs were just as difficult to create/maintain as ever) would imply a linear increase in the number of players. However, since MUDs have gotten easier to create/maintain, another factor needs to be included... If you assume that it's half as much work to create and maintain a MUD in 2008 (when there are 1341 MUDs) as it was in 2000 (when there were 771 MUDs), then then there are rougly the same number of players now (1341 * 1/2 as hard to create/maintain = 670) as in 2000 (771). If MUDs are MUCH easier to create/maintain, there are far fewer players. If MUDs are only slightly easier to create/maintain, there are slightly more players. As a percentage of the number of people on the internet, there are certainly fewer MUD players now than in 2000. Compared to the number of MMORPG players, there are fewer MUD players per MMORPG player. 2006 info from MMORPG.com: Year New MMORPGs (MMORPG.com) Subscribers (MMORPGChart) 1996 2 10000 1997 5 30000 1998 2 150000 1999 3 800000 2000 1 1500000 2001 7 2800000 2002 8 4000000 2003 19 5000000 2004 17 6500000 2005 22 9000000 2006 22.66666667 13000000