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The Wolfenstein -> UT transition was entirely evolutionary--and quite simple at that. All of the science behind UT has been well understood since the advent of linear algebra. The only obstacle was the capability of the computer to pump out pixels quickly and still have enough cycles to spare for simplistic AI.
The transition from simplistic finite state AI to a program capable of passing the Turing test will require a revolutionary discovery. We do not yet even know how to begin to approach the problem. In other words, unlike realtime graphics rendering, believable AI is not simply a matter of having sufficient processor speed. There is a qualitative difference between sentience and raw computational capacity that we have yet to fully identify.
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