Some good points you bring up, Gemini. As far as the newbie issue...

The way I envisioned the survival MUD, time would work in an unusual way.  Every new player would begin in the same portion of the timeline.  IE, there is one moment when all players awake, but this is relived over and over every time someone starts a new char.  Events of history would be retraced over and over with each character-- and would branch out according to the player's choices.  All the while, a universal foe would throw greater and greater forces at the player.  Eventually (at "max level") all the players would merge into a final time period and have to fight this foe together (although, ideally, it would be a hopeless fight).

I would point out that there are quite a lot of examples in literature where those who decide to wage warfare openly get temporary gains but ultimately are doomed.  The way I envision this, rather than the "start as a nobody and build yourself" concept which most MUDs embrace, this would follow the concept "start about average and survive while the world around you decays".  Literature is full of examples of "warriors of the ancient world", although typically when these legendary folks were in the days of their youth, they weren't anything special, and often the people they once looked up to are long since dead, pursuing open combat.

You are quite right though: the road to eventual greatness would be a calculated balance of fighting and fleeing. Ideally, anyone who strives to simply fight each foe to the death, is utterly doomed. For the situation would be hopeless. But by the same token, someone who spends the entire time fleeing ought not to be as big a legend as someone who won fame for their performance in some legendary mythical battle.