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I know what you mean about a limited number of real guards.
some thoughts:
A crime happens
The number of people in the room will determine the % chance that someone will alert the guards
The type of people in the room will determine the % chance that someone will alert the guards
The type/number of people in the room determines how much useful evidence is recorded (person's description, clothing, weapon etc).
If the guards are alerted automatically they then proceed from their current position to the room. If the player gets away then decide (with the above information) if the guards have enough information to spot the person the next time he/she goes by one.
If they don't have enough information determine how long it will take (if ever) for the guards to have enough information. This could simply be a time-counter, estimate X hours before the guards figure out whodunit based off eye-witness-accounts and descriptions.
So if the person tries to shoplift in merchant square noon on Sunday the guards get alerted immediately. If the player runs off then there will probably be enough eye-witness accounts for the guards to send out a warrant and find the person next time he walks by.
If the person does the same thing at 7:00am and gets away it may take the police 48 hours before they "gather" enough evidence to find this person.
If the person does the same thing at midnight then they may never catch the person.
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