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Old 04-18-2008, 04:25 PM   #1
lotusofro
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Join Date: Mar 2008
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Question The "Health," of Muds

Over on another site that has limited participation I've been responding to KaVir and his weird logic that Muds are healthier now than ever before. The subject was brought up by a poster stating that MMORPGs are doing better than ever and more and more space is becoming available from the servers offering Mud space. He thought Muds were fading. He was immediately attacked by users over there for this opinion. I'm posting it here, because over there it's the same few people posting and they worship KaVir.

I believe Muds aren't healthier on a whole than ever before. I believe we're starting to see a "downcline," in users as well as Mud numbers. Users is really hard to prove. Mud numbers is easier to prove.

KaVir provided a list of how many Muds were created on the TMC listings and in what year:

Date New Total
1990 15 95
1991 31 126
1992 40 166
1993 36 202
1994 60 262
1995 76 338
1996 91 429
1997 71 500
1998 66 566
1999 133 699
2000 72 771
2001 61 832
2002 67 899
2003 74 973
2004 71 1044
2005 64 1108
2006 70 1178
2007 102 1280
2008 61 1341

He also has provided data that 802 Muds were "Removed," from the listings in a series of purges in 2005. From September of 2005 to the last purge (end of 2007) 208 muds were removed.

My logic states that 1010 muds were removed since 2005. While 297 were added. Certainly some of the 1110 muds were created in that time frame. Even if you go back to 2000, the number is 1010 vs. 642. Obviously quite a bit of the 1010 were created since 2000. Occam's Razer says it's easier to believe more muds "died," than were "born." I admit the hole in my logic is we don't know when the purged muds were created. We just know that 1010 muds that once existed but currently do not and that 1341 muds are currently listed by TMC.

KaVir says my logic is faulty. To quote KaVir "252 muds were added since September 2005. 208 muds have been purged since September 2005. Therefore there must been 252+208=460 muds added since September 2005, in order for there to be 252 left after 208 were purged. 460 is twice as much as 208. Thus more than twice as many muds have been added as have been purged in the last 2.5 years"

I say KaVir's logic is faulty.

If we dismiss the 802 that were purged in September 2005 my point is still proven by my logic. We know from KaVir that 252 muds were created since September 2005. We know 208 muds were purged at the end of 2007. Since they only purge every few years we have no idea how many muds should be purged since the last purge. We can use the data from September 2005 until December 31st 2007:

191 New Muds. 208 Muds Deleted.

My logic says more muds deleted than started. KaVir's logic will say that 399 muds were started.

Whose logic is better and since we finally have some statistical data about Mud Health getting worse: What are your thoughts?

I've been doing a lot of research and I think we can adapt and grow again. First we just need to acknowledge the downcline and figure out what universal changes can make up for it. I in no way believe Muds are obsolete and or inferior entertainment. I think that some issues just need to be addressed that could turn things around.
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