I'm not sure the drop is all that uniform. I run three text-based games. One of them, my oldest, has seen a pretty dramatic drop in regular players during the past year, while one held steady and the other, the newest one, has grown steadily and now holds stable on most nights.
In fact, the newest game gets the kind of crowds the oldest game used to get. Of course, my personal focus on development and activity has been on the newest game - and that, I think, has a lot to do with it on both sides.
All games go through ebbs and flows during school years, holiday seasons, exam periods, etc. But I can't say with any certainty that there's a way to quantify the numbers we lose to XBoxes or gain because newbies to Star Wars Galaxies or other MMORPGs discover text games.
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