Top Mud Sites Forum - View Single Post

aegora · 12-25-2007, 12:39 AM

Oooers,
I love decision trees... and leafytrees in general (but thats beside the point) we use them at work sometimes.

I have a few questions about your methodology, because i of course dont know exactly how you generated your tree.. so ill just list some of the weaknesses of trees, and perhaps you have already counterbalanced them!

Because you are only inputting data to which you know the answer, you are making a "Training Tree" ... this tree can be used to determine the likliest category that an unknown data entry will have.
[That I mean by this is that you can use your tree to guess what population size may soon inhabit a mud that was newly created or one which you did not enter into the initial tree creation. ]

The unfortunate side effect to drawing conclusions from trees based on data such as the ones you inputted, is that you can "overfit" the data to the tree. You HAVE to get results similar to what you would expect, because you already know all the answers. (BTW, ime trying to paraphrase a book on this subject I read at work last week, if it seems garbled, ill retranslate when i go back to work after christmas ) There are ways to get around overfitting the data, but these do not take into account the conditions that may give rise to the properties you have inputted. For example, a VERY well written and interactive small mud may get a LOT of viewers, whereas a HUGE but miserably effected mud would soon vanish (and one must note that vanished muds are likely not included in your tree calcs... they may change things)

Also, it doesnt take into consideration advertising and website layouts... key things that I believe are quite important in attracting and keeping new players.... there was recently a post about someone's attempt to lure players with graphic intensive sites / client and keeping them after it was realized that the game was mostly text... That issue is also very interesting .

But beside that, I think its a really fascinating piece of work .. one definately worth doing, because it may give motivation to those littler muds to grow a bit more, and suggestions on Roleplay or PK status to others that may help their playerbase!

12-25-2007, 12:39 AM	#2
aegora New Member Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: VAncouver, BC, CAnada Posts: 23	Re: Decision tree Oooers, I love decision trees... and leafytrees in general (but thats beside the point) we use them at work sometimes. I have a few questions about your methodology, because i of course dont know exactly how you generated your tree.. so ill just list some of the weaknesses of trees, and perhaps you have already counterbalanced them! Because you are only inputting data to which you know the answer, you are making a "Training Tree" ... this tree can be used to determine the likliest category that an unknown data entry will have. [That I mean by this is that you can use your tree to guess what population size may soon inhabit a mud that was newly created or one which you did not enter into the initial tree creation. ] The unfortunate side effect to drawing conclusions from trees based on data such as the ones you inputted, is that you can "overfit" the data to the tree. You HAVE to get results similar to what you would expect, because you already know all the answers. (BTW, ime trying to paraphrase a book on this subject I read at work last week, if it seems garbled, ill retranslate when i go back to work after christmas ) There are ways to get around overfitting the data, but these do not take into account the conditions that may give rise to the properties you have inputted. For example, a VERY well written and interactive small mud may get a LOT of viewers, whereas a HUGE but miserably effected mud would soon vanish (and one must note that vanished muds are likely not included in your tree calcs... they may change things) Also, it doesnt take into consideration advertising and website layouts... key things that I believe are quite important in attracting and keeping new players.... there was recently a post about someone's attempt to lure players with graphic intensive sites / client and keeping them after it was realized that the game was mostly text... That issue is also very interesting . But beside that, I think its a really fascinating piece of work .. one definately worth doing, because it may give motivation to those littler muds to grow a bit more, and suggestions on Roleplay or PK status to others that may help their playerbase!