I'm not so sure I'd dispute that to that degree... Eliza comes from the 60's, and we haven't really gotten far beyond that. I imagine we'll see leaps and bounds in the improvement of many things, including discourse analysis, but to perfect NLP, discourse analysis, knowledgebase use, and more to a Turing Test degree is probably asking a bit much. I imagine, however, if we restrict ourselves to certain subsets, we'll see vast acheivements.
However, to get back to the original topic of the post... For a mud, chances are you want your AI to fool as best as possible, not neccessarily to provide hours of one on one chit-chat... Try logging everything from a player, feeding that to a learning algorithm (Bayesian nets?) and then just letting it run. 99% of the time, it won't know what's going on, especially over a general chat channel, but it can just stay quiet then and seem like a quiet player. It's a simple solution, if far from elegant.
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